航空安全管理中基于理货的风险评估流程构建

IF 1 4区 心理学 Q4 PSYCHOLOGY, APPLIED
Tevfik Uyar
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引用次数: 2

摘要

摘要有限理性方法之一是快速节俭启发式框架,它区分了风险和不确定性概念。国际民航组织安全管理系统的风险方法完全基于“风险”概念,它推荐的风险评估方法不考虑由于数据不足,某些事件可以被描述为不确定性而不是风险。不确定性条件是复杂且不可计算的事件,因此由于专家的主观性,风险评估过程容易出错。为了使概率值和严重性值的分配更加一致,本文建议采用基于单位权重加性线性模型的“计数清单”。此外,还为一家公务机运营商创建了两份清单,并利用这些清单对该运营商最近的20项风险评估进行了重新评估。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Structuring Risk Assessment Process with Tallying in Aviation Safety Management
ABSTRACT One of the bounded rationality approaches is fast-and-frugal heuristics framework which is demarcating between risk and uncertainty concepts. The risk approach of the ICAO Safety Management System is completely based on the “risk” concept only and it recommends a risk assessment method not considering that some events can be described as uncertainty rather than risk because of insufficient data. Uncertainty conditions are complex and not-calculable events so the risk evaluation process may be error-prone due to the subjectivity of experts. This paper suggests using “tallying checklists” which are based on unit weight additive linear model, for making the probability and severity value assignments more consistent. Moreover, two checklists were created for a business jet operator and the twenty recent risk assessments of the operator were re-evaluated by using these checklists.
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CiteScore
2.80
自引率
7.70%
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