Perubahan Produksi dan Perdagangan Negara-negara Produsen Lada Terbesar di Dunia dan Implikasinya bagi Indonesia

The production and trade of agricultural products in global markets will undergo changes due to shifts in demand and production patterns. Although demand for pepper is likely to remain strong, pepper production is prone to fluctuations due to various factors, particularly natural ones. This study aims to predict future changes in the production and trade of the world's largest pepper-producing countries and identify macro-level improvements needed to enhance the pepper production and trade system in Indonesia. Using time-series analysis (i.e., double exponential smoothing) with FAOSTAT data from 1961-2020, this study predicts that the competitive landscape among pepper-producing countries is likely to change over the next 15 years. Some producing countries may overtake others in terms of pepper production and trade. Consequently, Indonesia needs to respond to these changes by implementing various sectoral-level improvements, such as investing in sustainable development, improving infrastructure, and addressing political factors, in addition to improving farmer-level practices.