{"title":"气候变化将一种经济昆虫推到灭绝的边缘:伊朗黄芪的案例研究","authors":"Saeid Ghasemi, Mansoureh Malekian, Mostafa Tarkesh","doi":"10.1111/jzs.12527","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Climate change is one of the main drivers of biodiversity decline worldwide, through shifting or shrinking habitats of species. Predicting the distribution of suitable habitats for species under climate change is essential for conservation planning. <i>Cyamophila astragalicola</i> is a specialist psyllid dependent on a spiny shrub, endemic to Zagros Mountains of Iran. The current study represents a modeling approach for lesser-known small invertebrates to assess their threat status. Ecological niche modeling was used to assess current suitable habitats of <i>C</i>. <i>astragalicola</i>, to develop model-based predictions of its habitat suitability under different climatic scenarios, and to assess the extinction risk of the species based on IUCN Red List criteria. Results revealed a sharp decline in suitable habitats (97.26% and 99.8% for the years 2050 and 2070, respectively) under the scenario of RCP 8.5. Further, under the two RCP scenarios, <i>C</i>. <i>astragalicola</i> was classified as IUCN Threat 2. A shift toward higher altitudes with lower temperature and higher precipitation was predicted. Results of modeling are based on abiotic factors only. Human interactions are not modeled; hence, the status of the species may be even more dramatic than the models may reveal. Generally, the results of this study indicate the high sensitivity of <i>C</i>. <i>astragalicola</i> to global warming. The narrow distribution range of the species coupled with the low dispersal ability can increase the risk of extinction. Ecological, economic, and social risks associated with the extinction need to be further evaluated to formulate future management policies.</p>","PeriodicalId":54751,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Zoological Systematics and Evolutionary Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2021-11-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Climate change pushes an economic insect to the brink of extinction: A case study for Cyamophila astragalicola in Iran\",\"authors\":\"Saeid Ghasemi, Mansoureh Malekian, Mostafa Tarkesh\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/jzs.12527\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Climate change is one of the main drivers of biodiversity decline worldwide, through shifting or shrinking habitats of species. Predicting the distribution of suitable habitats for species under climate change is essential for conservation planning. <i>Cyamophila astragalicola</i> is a specialist psyllid dependent on a spiny shrub, endemic to Zagros Mountains of Iran. The current study represents a modeling approach for lesser-known small invertebrates to assess their threat status. Ecological niche modeling was used to assess current suitable habitats of <i>C</i>. <i>astragalicola</i>, to develop model-based predictions of its habitat suitability under different climatic scenarios, and to assess the extinction risk of the species based on IUCN Red List criteria. Results revealed a sharp decline in suitable habitats (97.26% and 99.8% for the years 2050 and 2070, respectively) under the scenario of RCP 8.5. Further, under the two RCP scenarios, <i>C</i>. <i>astragalicola</i> was classified as IUCN Threat 2. A shift toward higher altitudes with lower temperature and higher precipitation was predicted. Results of modeling are based on abiotic factors only. Human interactions are not modeled; hence, the status of the species may be even more dramatic than the models may reveal. Generally, the results of this study indicate the high sensitivity of <i>C</i>. <i>astragalicola</i> to global warming. The narrow distribution range of the species coupled with the low dispersal ability can increase the risk of extinction. Ecological, economic, and social risks associated with the extinction need to be further evaluated to formulate future management policies.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":54751,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Zoological Systematics and Evolutionary Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-11-18\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Zoological Systematics and Evolutionary Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"99\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jzs.12527\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"生物学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Zoological Systematics and Evolutionary Research","FirstCategoryId":"99","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jzs.12527","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"生物学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Climate change pushes an economic insect to the brink of extinction: A case study for Cyamophila astragalicola in Iran
Climate change is one of the main drivers of biodiversity decline worldwide, through shifting or shrinking habitats of species. Predicting the distribution of suitable habitats for species under climate change is essential for conservation planning. Cyamophila astragalicola is a specialist psyllid dependent on a spiny shrub, endemic to Zagros Mountains of Iran. The current study represents a modeling approach for lesser-known small invertebrates to assess their threat status. Ecological niche modeling was used to assess current suitable habitats of C. astragalicola, to develop model-based predictions of its habitat suitability under different climatic scenarios, and to assess the extinction risk of the species based on IUCN Red List criteria. Results revealed a sharp decline in suitable habitats (97.26% and 99.8% for the years 2050 and 2070, respectively) under the scenario of RCP 8.5. Further, under the two RCP scenarios, C. astragalicola was classified as IUCN Threat 2. A shift toward higher altitudes with lower temperature and higher precipitation was predicted. Results of modeling are based on abiotic factors only. Human interactions are not modeled; hence, the status of the species may be even more dramatic than the models may reveal. Generally, the results of this study indicate the high sensitivity of C. astragalicola to global warming. The narrow distribution range of the species coupled with the low dispersal ability can increase the risk of extinction. Ecological, economic, and social risks associated with the extinction need to be further evaluated to formulate future management policies.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Zoological Systematics and Evolutionary Research (JZSER)is a peer-reviewed, international forum for publication of high-quality research on systematic zoology and evolutionary biology. The aim of the journal is to provoke a synthesis of results from morphology, physiology, animal geography, ecology, ethology, evolutionary genetics, population genetics, developmental biology and molecular biology. Besides empirical papers, theoretical contributions and review articles are welcome. Integrative and interdisciplinary contributions are particularly preferred. Purely taxonomic and predominantly cytogenetic manuscripts will not be accepted except in rare cases, and then only at the Editor-in-Chief''s discretion. The same is true for phylogenetic studies based solely on mitochondrial marker sequences without any additional methodological approach. To encourage scientific exchange and discussions, authors are invited to send critical comments on previously published articles. Only papers in English language are accepted.