Libya’s new period of uncertainty

Libya’s failure to hold elections as scheduled on 24 December 2021 marked the failure of a second peace process led by the United Nations Special Mission in Libya. The country’s rival political coalitions remain divided geographically, with one based in Tripoli in the west and another based in Tobruk in the east. These groups show no sign that they will agree to hold elections in the near term and seem to be preparing for a long-term power struggle. Meanwhile, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted the Western powers to view Libya with renewed interest, given that they are keen to secure oil and gas to supply global energy markets thrown off balance by the war.