Impact of forest type and age on shallow landslide susceptibility: a case study from the 2017 heavy rainfall in northern Kyushu, Japan

ABSTRACT Assessing the impact of forest type and age on shallow landslide susceptibility is important for managing protective functions of forests. Previous studies have examined the correlation between forest types and ages, and shallow landslide susceptibility, but causal effects of forest type and age on shallow landslide susceptibility are yet not clear. This study investigated the causal effect of forest type and age on shallow landslide susceptibility using a propensity score method by combining existing geo-data sets. Here, we focus on shallow landslides caused by an extreme rainfall event on 5–6 July 2017, in the mountainous areas of Asakura City and Toho Village, Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan. Randomly located samples of coniferous forest, broadleaved forest, and young forest exposed to shallow landslide events were analyzed. The inverse probability of treatment weighting with the propensity score was applied to the samples to compare the differences in shallow landslide susceptibility among the three forest classes. Young forest had increased shallow landslide susceptibility, compared with coniferous forest and broadleaved forest, by 3.70 × 10−2 and 4.12 × 10−2, respectively, which corresponded to a two to three times increase in shallow landslide susceptibility when the forest changes from coniferous or broadleaved forest to young forest. No significant difference in shallow landslide susceptibility between coniferous forest and broadleaved forest was observed. These differences in shallow landslide susceptibility should be considered when implementing forest management schemes.