Observations and Modeling of Scintillation in the Vicinity of a Polar Cap Patch

Small-scale ionospheric plasma structures can cause scintillation in radio signals passing through the ionosphere.  The relationship between the scintillated signal and how plasma structuring develops is complex.  We model the development of small-scale plasma structuring in and around an idealized polar cap patch observed by the Resolute Bay Incoherent Scatter Radars (RISR) with the Geospace Environment Model for Ion-Neutral Interactions (GEMINI).  Then, we simulate a signal passing through the resulting small-scale structuring with the Satellite-beacon Ionospheric-scintillation Global Model of the upper Atmosphere (SIGMA) to predict the scintillation characteristics that will be observed by a ground receiver at different stages of instability development.  Finally, we compare the predicted signal characteristics with actual observations of scintillation from ground receivers in the vicinity of Resolute Bay.  We interpret the results in terms of the nature of the small-scale plasma structuring in the ionosphere and how it impacts signals of different frequencies, and attempt to infer information about the ionospheric plasma irregularity spectrum.