Application of perceptual control theory to a Beer Game supply chain model

ABSTRACT The research investigated whether Perceptual Control Theory (PCT) can be used to model the decisions of small groups utilizing data from the Beer Game. The PCT model was tested on public and MSc data operating the Beer Game. Investigations of closed-loop behaviour determined the perceived disturbance was the controlled variable. A set of PCT Simulink models was built and their parameters adjusted to give responses comparable to the human Beer Game based on the groups’ orders alone. A few groups appear to have additionally used the backlog as input. PCT, incorporating the principle of closed loop control, does represent the human management of the Beer Game, giving an overall correlation coefficient of 0.70-0.74 obtained between the orders from a PCT model and those used in the Beer Game from 14 groups of participants and supported by minimum weighted integrals IAE and ITAE and Kolmogorov-Smirnov 2 sample tests.