Health information technology foresight for Iran: A Delphi study of experts’ views to inform future policymaking

Background: Policymakers require a systematic approach when planning for information technology needs in healthcare. Objective: The aim of this study was to obtain experts’ predictions of future health information technology (HIT) needs until 2025 for Iran in relation to the relative importance of key technologies, expected timeframe of realisation, areas that may be impacted upon and obstacles to achieving these goals. Method: This article presents results from the third phase (a Delphi study) of a larger mixed-method study. Policymakers from the Iranian Ministry of Health and faculty members from different medical universities across the country who were expert in the field of HIT were invited to participate (n = 61). Results: Participants (39) completed the first-round questionnaire and 24 completed the second. The development of personal health records (n = 32, 82.0%), the development of clinical decision-making systems (n = 30, 76.9%) and the use of business intelligence for collecting and analysing clinical and financial data (n = 32, 82.0%) were predicted to occur after 2025. The healthcare areas predicted to experience the greatest impact from most HITs were facilitating patient–provider communication and improving healthcare quality. Key barriers to achieving HITs were related to weaknesses in planning and limited financial resources for most technologies. Conclusion: By identifying the areas of impact and the barriers to achieving the HIT goals, more accurate planning is possible and resources can be allocated according to priorities.