风险-需求-反应性评估工具(RNR-A)在瑞典监狱和缓刑服务中的预测效度评估

IF 0.9 4区社会学 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Prison Journal Pub Date : 2022-06-01 DOI:10.1177/00328855221095561

Peter Bäckström, M. Danielsson, Louise C. Starfelt Sutton, D. Andersson

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引用次数: 4

摘要

为了评估风险原则在“现实世界”的实施，本研究检验了瑞典监狱和缓刑服务机构风险-需求-反应性评估的预测有效性。对2442名罪犯进行24个月的随访，再定罪率被用来评估校准和歧视指数。结果表明，预测准确度(AUC = 0.68 - 0.74)可以接受，在青少年罪犯中有改善的余地。该工具的效用主要得益于其筛选低风险罪犯的能力，而对中高风险罪犯再犯的过度预测需要更全面的评估，以便为有效规划康复服务强度提供信息。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Evaluation of the Predictive Validity of a Risk-Need-Responsivity Assessment Tool (RNR-A) in the Swedish Prison and Probation Service

To appraise the “real-world” implementation of the risk principle, this study examined the predictive validity of a Risk-Need-Responsivity assessment in the Swedish Prison and Probation Service. Reconviction rates at 24 months follow-up in a cohort of 2,442 offenders were used to assess calibration and discrimination indices. Results indicated acceptable predictive accuracy (AUC = .68–.74), with scope for improvement among young adult offenders. The tool's utility was supported foremost by its ability to screen out low-risk offenders, while over-prediction of recidivism among medium- and high-risk offenders calls for more comprehensive assessment to inform the effective planning of rehabilitative service intensity.

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来源期刊

Prison Journal CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

7.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： The editorial team"s aim is to establish The Prison Journal as a focal point and the forum of choice for studies, ideas, and discussion of adult and juvenile confinement, treatment interventions, and alternative sanctions.