气候变化对尼日利亚长期作物产量的影响。

International Journal on Food System Dynamics Pub Date : 2020-07-21 DOI:10.18461/IJFSD.V11I3.54

S. Olakojo, Olaronke T. Onanuga

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引用次数: 2

摘要

该研究调查了气候变化对尼日利亚主要粮食作物产量的影响，并评估了气候冲击对福利的传播渠道。采用长期因果检验、马尔可夫切换回归和结构向量自回归模型。气候变化和作物产量之间的长期因果关系没有被否定。在高产期，温度升高1%会使作物产量降低-0.12%，而在高产期和低产期，降雨量增加1%会分别使产量增加0.21%和0.26%。对福利的冲击可以通过作物产量和粮食价格效应追溯到气候变化。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Effects of climate change on the long-run crops' yields in Nigeria.

The study investigated the impact of climate change on yields of leading food crops in Nigeria and assessed the transmission channels of climate shocks to welfare. Long-run causality test, Markov-switching regression and Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model were used. Long-run causality between climate change and crop yields was not rejected. A rise in temperature by 1% reduces crop yields by -0.12% in the regime of high yield while 1% increase in rainfall increases yields by 0.21% and 0.26%, respectively in high and low yield period. Shocks to welfare is traceable to climate change via crop yields and food prices effect.

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来源期刊

International Journal on Food System Dynamics Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

1.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Understanding the development of the food system requires a system view that captures the complexity of the system and its many interrelationships with its economic, social and natural environments. The Journal accepts and offers papers within this broad range of issues focussing on the management, policy, marketing, consumer aspects, transparency, e-commerce, institutional or regional development, information and communication systems, ressource economics, production economics, chain management, network economics, and similar aspects. Papers may focus on modeling, empirical research or theoretical analyis. This broad range of publication opportunities asks authors to follow clear lines of arguments and to present arguments in a convincing way that avoids unnecessary complexities of model formulations if not relevant for the support of arguments. The publication of scientific articles is complemented by a number of sections that provide room for publications with a more specific focus: ''Case studies'': A section on case studies of the ''Harvard Type'' allows the publication of studies that might build on established scientific methodology but demonstrate its use in ceratin decision environments. Case studies might be complemented by ''teaching cases'' that are kept on a database outside the journal but accessible to readers on approval by authors. ''Research Forum'': It allows to discuss newly emerging research challenges or to contribute to ongoing scientific discussions on research problems. In addition, authors might initiate a discussion on issues brought up by articles published in the journal. ''Research Notes'': It provides room for specific shorter scientific contributions with a narrow scope.