人口预测中简单年龄的计算

R. Neupert
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究描述了一种按5岁年龄组估计或预测的单一年龄人口的插值方法。该方法的最小粗糙度消除了伪变化问题,这是一个相当常见的问题,在插值使用乘法器。这些波动是按简单年龄分布的波动,是由内插方法中包含的数学运算造成的,而不是由人口动态造成的。尽管这种方法能够避免这个问题,但它本身的优点是方便的,它代表了在按单一年龄分类年龄组时使用乘数的一种有利的替代办法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The calculation of simple ages in population projections
This study describes a method of interpolation to disaggregate into single ages populations estimated or projected by five-year age groups. The method minimum roughness obviates the problem of spurious variations, which is a rather frequent problem in interpolations using multipliers. These are fluctuations that appear in the distribution by simple ages resulting from mathematical operations included in the method of interpolation and not from the demographic dynamics. Irrespective of its ability to avoid this problem, the method is convenient by its own merit, and represents an advantageous alternative to the use of multipliers in the disaggregation of age groups by single ages.
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审稿时长
8 weeks
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