非法作物对哥伦比亚森林覆盖的影响

IF 2.7 4区环境科学与生态学 Q1 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Journal of Land Use Science Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI:10.1080/1747423X.2021.2020921

Viviana Quiroga Angel, Stevenson Pablo, H. Wagner

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引用次数: 4

摘要

世界上许多武装冲突发生在生物多样性热点地区，其中近50%的武装冲突发生在森林地区。在哥伦比亚，武装冲突意味着为了种植非法作物而砍伐大片森林。本研究的目的是评估2001年至2014年期间非法作物在哥伦比亚森林砍伐动态中所起的作用。我们建立了1120个城市的年毁林率和9个预测因子数据库，并建立了考虑空间自相关的固定效应模型。使用AIC进行的模型选择表明，种植古柯作物的面积是年毁林率的最佳预测因子，而古柯作物的移除与森林覆盖的增加有关。根据我们的研究结果，2001年至2014年期间，古柯作物通过间接(溢出到附近地区)、直接和暂时滞后的机制促进了哥伦比亚的森林砍伐。

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The effect of illicit crops on forest cover in Colombia

ABSTRACT Many armed conflicts worldwide occur in biodiversity hotspots and nearly 50% of those conflicts occur in forested regions. In Colombia, the armed conflict has implied the clearing of large forest tracts for the establishment of illicit crops. The aim of this study was to assess the role that illicit crops played in the deforestation dynamics in Colombia between 2001 and 2014. We established a database with the annual deforestation rates and nine predictors for 1120 municipalities and built fixed effects models that take spatial autocorrelation into account. Model selection with AIC suggested that the area cultivated with coca crops was the best predictor of annual rates of deforestation, whereas coca crop removal was associated with increasing forest cover. According to our results, coca crops promoted deforestation in Colombia between 2001 and 2014 through indirect (spilling-over to nearby areas), immediate and temporally-lagged mechanisms.

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来源期刊

Journal of Land Use Science Environmental Science-Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

CiteScore

5.40

自引率

6.20%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Land Use Science provides a central outlet for high-quality articles on theoretical and empirical aspects of land-use science at the interface of social and environmental systems. The Journal brings together an array of research perspectives at multiple temporal, spatial and social scales that contribute a better understanding of land-system dynamics and communicate scientific advances towards attaining land-system sustainability.