用数学模拟方法评价黑海架生态系统可持续性

IF 0.7 Q4 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

Geographia Technica Pub Date : 2021-06-03 DOI:10.21163/GT_2021.162.02

V. Komorin

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引用次数: 1

摘要

以黑海西北陆架为例，采用数学建模的方法，将系统分析方法用于评估海洋陆架生态系统的可持续性，因为它是海洋中最容易受到自然和人为因素影响的部分。在数值实验的基础上，对动态相空间下的生态系统风险进行了分析。结果表明:近10年来，在自然和人为因素的共同影响下，黑海陆架区生态系统风险在基线值附近波动，但随着自然和人为因素综合影响的增加，系统趋于不稳定状态。关键词:系统分析，生态系统风险，海洋生态系统，数学建模，生态系统稳定性，黑海

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ASSESSMENT OF THE BLACK SEA SHELF ECOSYSTEM SUSTAINABILITY WITH MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION METHOD

The system analysis approach has been used for assessment of the sustainability of the marine shelf ecosystem with the method of mathematical modeling on the example of the north-western shelf of the Black Sea, as the most vulnerable part of the sea to the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors. Based on numerical experiments, an analysis of ecosystem risk in dynamic phase space was performed. Results have shown that the ecosystem risk of the Black Sea shelf zone has fluctuated around baseline value over the last decade under the existing influences of natural and anthropogenic factors, but the system approaches an unstable state with an increase of the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic factors. Key-words: system analysis, ecosystem risk, marine ecosystem, mathematical modeling, ecosystem stability, Black Sea.

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来源期刊

Geographia Technica GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL-

CiteScore

2.30

自引率

14.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： Geographia Technica is a journal devoted to the publication of all papers on all aspects of the use of technical and quantitative methods in geographical research. It aims at presenting its readers with the latest developments in G.I.S technology, mathematical methods applicable to any field of geography, territorial micro-scalar and laboratory experiments, and the latest developments induced by the measurement techniques to the geographical research. Geographia Technica is dedicated to all those who understand that nowadays every field of geography can only be described by specific numerical values, variables both oftime and space which require the sort of numerical analysis only possible with the aid of technical and quantitative methods offered by powerful computers and dedicated software. Our understanding of Geographia Technica expands the concept of technical methods applied to geography to its broadest sense and for that, papers of different interests such as: G.l.S, Spatial Analysis, Remote Sensing, Cartography or Geostatistics as well as papers which, by promoting the above mentioned directions bring a technical approach in the fields of hydrology, climatology, geomorphology, human geography territorial planning are more than welcomed provided they are of sufficient wide interest and relevance.