The Library is on Fire, Now What? Assessing the Damage and How to Approach It: A Case Study from the Chesapeake Bay

ABSTRACT The Longwood Institute of Archaeology conducted the Vulnerability, Potential and Condition (VPC) assessment of shoreline archaeological sites along 1990 km (1237 miles) of the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia. VPC assessment involves a three-pronged approach that includes (1) the assessment of site vulnerability due to changing shorelines using an analytical package called Analysing Moving Boundaries Using R – AMBUR, (2) the assessment of potential shoreline site locations through predictive modelling using Weights of Evidence – WofE – analysis, and (3) the assessment of current conditions of known sites through direct observation. Vulnerability assessment results indicated that 49% of site shorelines in the project area are moving landward. Potential assessment located high-probability site locations with an 83% efficiency. Condition assessment, conducted using standard field protocols, provided feedback of the sites’ current conditions. The intended outcome of this method is to provide resource managers with information needed to make informed, data-driven management decisions.