Impact of export diversification on economic growth: a system GMM approach

Purpose This paper aims to empirically analyze the impact of export diversification on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth. Design/methodology/approach Using system generalized method of moments (GMM), a nonlinear model in a dynamic panel data growth framework for 101 countries between 1995 and 2019 was estimated. Findings Results evidenced that export concentration, measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), is negatively associated with GDP per capita growth after controlling for the effects of other explanatory variables. Further, the squared term of HHI used in the model to measure the nonlinear relationship between export concentration and economic growth indicated that the low-income and lower-middle-income countries benefited from export diversification. At the same time, high-income and upper-middle-income countries perform well with their export specialization. The results of the robustness check validate the findings of nonlinear estimation. Research limitations/implications The findings recommend that low-income and lower-middle-income countries diversify their export basket to improve economic growth by generating stable export earnings. Similarly, high-income and upper-middle-income countries should focus on measures to close the product lines which no longer belong to their factor endowments and rebalance their export basket. Originality/value This study contributes to the existing literature by using the system GMM method, which is most appropriate for a dynamic panel data growth framework with up-to-date data. Further, this study segregates a large panel into 43 concentrated and 58 diversified countries to test the robustness of the empirical results.