Modelling the development and decay of cryoconite holes in northwestern Greenland

Abstract. Cryoconite holes (CHs) are water-filled cylindrical holes with cryoconite (dark-coloured sediment) deposited at their bottoms, forming on ablating ice surfaces of glaciers and ice sheets worldwide. Because the collapse of CHs may disperse cryoconite on the ice surface, thereby decreasing the ice surface albedo, accurate simulation of the temporal changes in CH depth is essential for understanding ice surface melt. We established a novel model that simulates the temporal changes in CH depth using heat budgets calculated independently at the ice surface and CH bottom based on hole-shaped geometry. We evaluated the model with in situ observations of the CH depths on the Qaanaaq ice cap in northwestern Greenland during the 2012, 2014, and 2017 melt seasons. The model reproduced the observed depth changes and timing of CH collapse well. Although earlier models have shown that CH depth tends to be deeper when downward shortwave radiation is intense, our sensitivity tests suggest that deeper CH tends to form when the diffuse component of downward shortwave radiation is dominant, whereas CHs tend to be shallower when the direct component is dominant. In addition, the total heat flux to the CH bottom is dominated by shortwave radiation transmitted through ice rather than that directly from the CH mouths when the CH is deeper than 0.01 m. Because the shortwave radiation transmitted through ice can reach the CH bottom regardless of CH diameter, CH depth is unlikely to be correlated with CH diameter. The relationship is consistent with previous observational studies. Furthermore, the simulations highlighted that the difference in albedo between ice surface and CH bottom was a key factor for reproducing the timing of CH collapse. It implies that lower ice surface albedo could induce CH collapse and thus cause further lowering of the albedo. Heat component analysis suggests that CH depth is governed by the balance between the intensity of the diffuse component of downward shortwave radiation and the turbulent heat transfer. Therefore, these meteorological conditions may be important factors contributing to the recent surface darkening of the Greenland ice sheet and other glaciers via the redistribution of CHs.