基于比赛特征重采样的男子职业网球比赛时长建模与仿真

IF 0.6 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM
Francesco Lisi, Matteo Grigoletto
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文分析了影响男子职业网球比赛时长的因素,并提出了一个模拟比赛时长模型。该模型的两个显著特点是:i)它考虑了影响比赛持续时间的各种事件;ii)它仅基于公开可用的数据。一旦建立,该模型就可以分析不同格式或规则更改对比赛持续时间的影响。该模型是使用数据集构建和验证的,该数据集包括2011年1月至2018年12月期间进行的19961场比赛。将模拟和观测到的持续时间分布与深度拟合优度分析进行了比较。这指出,该模型很好地描述了中部和尾部的真实分布。我们还表明,我们的模型改进了文献中的类似模型。最后,分析了几个案例:取消第一服务的效果或优势或两者兼而有之;温布尔登网球公开赛新的决胜局形式;以及在罗兰·加洛斯的第五盘决胜局。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modeling and simulating durations of men’s professional tennis matches by resampling match features
In this paper we analyze the factors impacting on the length of a men’s professional tennis match and propose a model to simulate matches’ durations. Two distinctive features of the model are that i) it considers all kinds of events that impact on the duration of a match and ii) it is based only on publicly available data. Once built, the model allows to analyze the impact of different formats or rule changes on matches’ duration. The model is built and validated using a dataset including 19,961 matches played in the period January 2011 – December 2018. The simulated and observed distributions of the durations are compared with an in-depth goodness-of-fit analysis. This points out that the model provides a good description of the real distribution both in the central part and in the tails. We also show that our model improves similar models present in the literature. Finally, several case studies are analyzed: the effect of abolishing the first service or the advantages or both; the new tie-break format at Wimbledon; and the introduction of fifth set tie-break at Roland Garros.
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来源期刊
自引率
9.10%
发文量
16
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