Modeling land use dynamics in the Kesem sub-basin, Awash River basin, Ethiopia

Abstract Nowadays, the land use and land cover change and its impacts are revealing on different natural resource and man-made systems. This study attempted to examine the land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics on this using multi-spectral satellite imageries in Geographical Information System (GIS) in the Kesem sub-basin of the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. It also attempted to assess the community perceptions on this using field observation. Three LULC maps were produced by analyzing remotely sensed images of Landsat satellite imageries within three periods of time from 1986 to 2013. Supervised image classification was used to map LULC classes and explain the drivers, and causes were linked to the changes. The result from LULC maps of 2013 showed nine major land use and land cover types. From 1986 to 2000, there were, among others, a dramatic expansion of agricultural land, massive settlement, and widespread eucalyptus plantation, all of which contributed to a dramatic decrement of shrub land and acacia in the sub-basin. The major driving forces for these changes were population density and over-use of land. The major consequences are the degradation of biodiversity, and loss of natural resources. The significant need of new and sweeping land use policy whose key tenets involve conservation and rehabilitation of land resources and appropriate land use planning is offered to policymakers.