"Big Triangle" No More? Role Expectation and Mutual Reassurance Between China and Russia in the Shifting US-China-Russia Relations

Abstract:I examine how mutual perception and role expectation evolve over time between China and Russia on each other's position in the international system and on bilateral relations in the context of shifting perceptions of the "Big Triangle" between the United States, Russia, and China since the late 1990s. Building on Role Theory in international relations, I use official texts, and experts' opinions during a series of key policy episodes to demonstrate that constantly adjusting role expectations and role enactment has become an important part of official Sino-Russian inter-state relations. Such relations have evolved from a more conservative, mutual role expectation of "do-no-harm" to more proactive expectations of joint efforts and policy coordination. This changing role expectation comes along with mutual reassurance against role mismanagement when both seek to substantiate the role of "significant others" beyond traditional military allies. During the 2010s, Sino-Russian bilateral relations started to be increasingly shaped by a discussion about the salience of US-China-Russia "Big Triangle."