紧急状态有助于镇压叛乱吗?测试心灵和思想理论

IF 1.7 2区社会学 Q2 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Foreign Policy Analysis Pub Date : 2023-01-20 DOI:10.1093/fpa/orad004

Aysegul Aydin, Anna Marie Gray

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引用次数: 0

摘要

赢得平叛战争需要民众支持吗？我们认为，采用法外框架击败叛乱的国家不太可能赢得反叛乱战争，因为尽管加强文职人员的控制有助于减少叛乱的后勤保障，但这会使赢得平民民心的过程变得复杂。我们用1918年后紧急状态规则的新数据来检验这一论点。我们发现，宣布紧急状态的时机很重要：推迟宣布此类规定的反叛乱分子表明，他们不顾一切地筛选平民，寻找没有法律后果的叛乱分子，从而减少了平民的支持，降低了他们获胜的机会。

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Does Emergency Rule Help Counterinsurgents? Testing the Hearts and Minds Theories

Is popular support necessary to win counterinsurgency wars? We argue that countries that adopt extralegal frameworks to defeat insurgencies are less likely to win counterinsurgency wars because although greater civilian control helps cut insurgent logistics, it complicates the process of winning hearts and minds among civilians. We test this argument with new data on emergency rule in the post-1918 period. We find that the timing of emergency declarations matters: Counterinsurgents that delay the declaration of such regulations signal their desperation to sift through civilian populations and find insurgents without legal ramifications, reducing civilian support, and decreasing their chances of winning.

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来源期刊

Foreign Policy Analysis INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-

CiteScore

3.60

自引率

9.10%

发文量

期刊介绍： Reflecting the diverse, comparative and multidisciplinary nature of the field, Foreign Policy Analysis provides an open forum for research publication that enhances the communication of concepts and ideas across theoretical, methodological, geographical and disciplinary boundaries. By emphasizing accessibility of content for scholars of all perspectives and approaches in the editorial and review process, Foreign Policy Analysis serves as a source for efforts at theoretical and methodological integration and deepening the conceptual debates throughout this rich and complex academic research tradition. Foreign policy analysis, as a field of study, is characterized by its actor-specific focus. The underlying, often implicit argument is that the source of international politics and change in international politics is human beings, acting individually or in groups. In the simplest terms, foreign policy analysis is the study of the process, effects, causes or outputs of foreign policy decision-making in either a comparative or case-specific manner.