Estimation of changes in bioclimatic potential values on the territory of Belarus using normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI)

Relations between bioclimatic potential changes and changes in state of crops have been analysed. NDVI (normalised difference vegetation index) and biological productivity parameter by D. I. Shashko (Bk) were used for this purpose. Average values of both parameters have been increasing over the territory of Belarus: since the beginning of 21st century, Bk values increased by 10–15 points and NDVI values – by 0.02–0.03 points. Relations between them depend on the type of vegetation. Current climate changes appeared to be favorable for forests, but average NDVI values on the croplands have been decreasing despite Bk growth. The main reason for this is high correlation between state of vegetation and water resources available (correlation coefficient r between NDVI and precipitation is 0.65–0.80), which, according to TWSA (terrestrial water storage anomaly) measurements, have begun to decrease during the last decade.