The war in Ukraine shows the game-changing effect of drones depends on the game

ABSTRACT The Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to the first large-scale, high intensity war where both sides have extensively deployed military and commercial drones. What the conflict has so far highlighted is that the frequently mentioned “game-changing effect” of drones on warfare depends on the game. Based on their category, drones produce distinctive military effects either as an extension of air power or as ammunition. Military thinking is therefore changing, making armed drones more politically acceptable. There is also reduced focus on the large armed and surveillance drones known from counterterrorism operations, as better integrated small drone scouts now serve land forces in combat. Far from being a mere security nuisance, small drones have yet to be effectively countered with air defenses. Military and dual-use export controls require adaptation to keep pace with these evolving battlefield realities. The drone lessons of the war in Ukraine thus point to many future challenges lying in wait for the international community.