国际贸易动态强度分析方法——以欧盟国家为例

N. Dziubanovska, V. V. Maslii, Z. Lytvyn, V. I. Bliask
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引用次数: 0

摘要

国际贸易是世界各国国民经济的重要组成部分,也是国际经济关系的主要形式。诸如出口、进口、贸易平衡等对外贸易主要指标的变化可能导致这种关系的主体的经济增长参数的严重不平衡。本文以2004-2021年欧盟国家为例,运用动态的绝对特征和相对特征的分组、比较、计算和分析等方法,提出了一种分析国际货物贸易动态变化强度的方法。为此,区分了两组国家:2004年以前的欧盟成员国(奥地利、比利时、英国、丹麦、爱尔兰、德国、西班牙、意大利、卢森堡、荷兰、法国、希腊、葡萄牙、瑞典和芬兰)和2004年以后成为欧盟成员国的国家(拉脱维亚、立陶宛、爱沙尼亚、马耳他、波兰、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亚、捷克共和国、匈牙利、塞浦路斯)。保加利亚、罗马尼亚和克罗地亚)。在进行这项研究时,使用了欧盟国家贸易交易的成本指标。通过权重、链增长率、基本增长率、超前系数、进出口强度等指标,对选定群体的进出口动态进行分析。在研究期间,欧盟国家的国际贸易发生了某些变化,在这些变化的影响下,确定了进出口活动发展的主要趋势和决定因素。这些决定因素包括2004年欧盟扩大、2009年金融危机和2019年新冠疫情。该一体化集团成员国的对外贸易发展经历了三个时期。确定了5个最大的出口国和进口国,以及按分配组别计算的最大净出口国和净进口国。分析结果还表明,2004年以后加入欧盟的国家在对外经济活动发展的背景下积极利用其成员资格:它们迅速增加了商品进出口量。事实证明,所提出的方法对于分析任何国际组织、一体化协会等国际贸易动态变化的性质都是有效的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An Approach to the Analysis of the Intensity of the International Trade Dynamics on the Example of the European Union Countries
International trade is an important component of the national economy of any country in the world, as well as a leading form of international economic relations. Changes in the main indicators of foreign trade, such as exports, imports, trade balance, can cause significant imbalances in the parameters of economic growth of the subjects of such relations.The article proposes an approach to analyzing the intensity of dynamic changes in international trade in goods on the example of EU countries during 2004-2021 with using such methodological approaches as grouping, comparison, calculation and analysis of absolute and relative characteristics of dynamics. For this purpose, two groups of countries where distinguished: countries that were members of the EU before 2004 (Austria, Belgium, Great Britain, Denmark, Ireland, Germany, Spain, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, France, Greece, Portugal, Sweden and Finland) and countries that became members of the EU after 2004 (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Cyprus. Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia). In carrying out the study, the cost indicators of trade transactions of the EU countries were used. With the help of such indicators as specific weight, chain and basic growth rates, coefficients of advance, the intensity of export and import dynamics in terms of selected groups where analyzed. The main trends and determinants of the development of export import activities, under the influence of which there were certain changes in the international trade of the EU countries during the period under study, were identified. These determinants include EU enlargement in 2004, the 2009 financial crisis and the COVID 2019 pandemic. Three periods of development of foreign trade of the member countries of this integration group are distinguished. The 5 largest exporter and importer countries, as well as the largest net exporters and net importers in terms of allocated groups, were identified. The results of the analysis also indicate that the countries that joined the EU after 2004 actively used their membership in the context of the development of foreign economic activity: they rapidly increased the volume of merchandise exports and imports. It has been proved that the proposed approach is effective for analyzing the nature of dynamic changes in international trade of any international organizations, integration associations, etc.
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