On Evaluating the Efficacy of Predictive Models for Cognitive Radio Spectrum Availability in Nigeria

In order to avoid the undesired interference with the activities of the primary users in cognitive radio networks, the secondary users are required to be able to predict the behavior of the primary users so as to leave the channel before the arrival of such licensed owner of the spectrum. While a number of existing literatures on cognitive radio spectrum prediction employ the use of propagation curves for predicting the spectrum holes otherwise known as TV white space, these models are built based on measurements conducted in regions that are different from Nigeria, suitability in terms of usage may therefore vary due to environmental factors and terrain profile. This work evaluates the efficacy of the developed model in predicting the cognitive spectrum availability in Nigeria. Models capable of predicting spectrum occupancy in the time domain using discrete-time two-state Markov chain with an appropriate Duty Cycle (DC) model and also a modified m-bell shaped exponential equation were formulated. The result obtained in all cases considered shows that the formulated models are appropriate to be used in any environment if the parameters were carefully extracted from the data. This work has also demonstrated that the accuracy of Markov chain models depends on the level of usage of a spectrum under consideration and may therefore not give desirable results when employed in some other spectrum.