Progression of pregnancy induced diabetes mellitus to type two diabetes mellitus, an ambidirectional cohort study.

INTRODUCTION Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a metabolic disorder characterized by elevated level of blood glucose. It affects more than 422 million people globally. In resource limited settings, the progression of gestational diabetes (GDM) to DM was not well investigated and this research work was conducted to estimate the incidence of DM after GDM and their predictors in resource limited settings. METHODS A retrospective and prospective cohort studies were used from January 2010 until December 2019. The data were collected using patients chart review, interview and collecting blood sample. Initially, baseline data were collected from GDM and GDM free women and update data were collected every 3 month. Clinical nurses were used to extract the necessary data from medical charts and to collect the data using patient interview. Laboratory technologists were used to measure the blood glucose level of the study participants. The study was conducted in pregnant women presenting themselves in the referral hospitals of Amhara regional state. The sample size was calculated using Epi-info software. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the profile of study participants. Kaplan Meier survival curve and life-table were used to estimate the survivals of study participants. Incidence density was used to estimate the incidence of DM. Cox regression was used to identify the predictors DM. RESULTS A total of 4892 women were followed giving for the response rate of 88.62%. The mean age of study participants at the start of the study was 28.34 years with standard deviation [SD] ±7.48 years. DM was associated with gestational diabetes mellitus [AHR (adjusted hazard ratio); 2.53, 95% CI: 2.14-2.99], frequency of breastfeeding [AHR; 0.72, 95% CI: 0.69-0.74], age [AHR; 1.04, 95% CI: 1.03-1.05], parity [AHR; 1.14, 95% CI: 1.07-1.21], regular physical exercise [AHR; 0.45, 95% CI: 0.37-0.55], family history of DM [AHR; 2.04, 95% CI: 1.76-2.37], stillbirth [AHR; 1.67: 95% CI: 1.34-2.07], abortion [AHR; 2.64, 95% CI: 2.25-3.09]. CONCLUSION The progression of GDM to DM was very high and special follow up should be implemented for women with a history of abortion, stillbirth, and family history of DM.