台湾政党认同之稳定与变迁:生命周期、世代与时期效应之检视

IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q2 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY
Rou-lan Chen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要本文以年龄、时期、群体效应的理论争论为基础,探讨这些因素对台湾党派稳定的影响。我们使用1991年至2020年的调查数据进行了两级多项式logit随机效应模型,以理清APC效应。我们的发现挑战了匡威的核心假设,即党派之争会随着年龄的增长而加剧。作为一个新的民主国家,台湾的党派关系仍然不稳定,我们确实发现了时代效应的证据,尤其是与有利于民进党的两岸危机有关的证据。然而,代际更替是推动台湾政党身份转变的最重要因素。随着世代更替,国民党背负着百年政党的形象。民进党此前在年轻群体中表现较好,但最近失去了千禧一代的支持。最年轻的一代越来越拒绝与传统政党交往。新一代势力将重组蓝绿分裂,扩大台湾政党体系的意识形态多样性,这似乎是合理的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
STABILITY AND CHANGES IN PARTY IDENTIFICATION IN TAIWAN: AN EXAMINATION OF LIFE CYCLE, COHORT, AND PERIOD EFFECTS
Abstract This article builds on the theoretical debate over age, period, and cohort effects (APC) and explores how these factors might affect Taiwan's partisan stability. We conducted a two-level multinomial logit random effects model using survey data from 1991 to 2020 to disentangle the APC effects. Our findings challenge Converse's core assumption that partisanship strengthens with age. As a new democracy, Taiwan's party affiliations remain fluid, and we do find evidence of period effects, particularly associated with cross-Strait crises that favor the DPP. However, generational replacement is the most significant factor driving party identity changes in Taiwan. With generational replacement, the Kuomintang is burdened by the image of a century-old party. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) had previously fared better among young cohorts but has recently lost its support from millennials. The youngest generation increasingly refuses to associate with the traditional political parties. It seems reasonable to expect that the new generational forces will restructure the Blue–Green cleavage and expand the ideological diversity of Taiwan's party system.
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来源期刊
Journal of East Asian Studies
Journal of East Asian Studies SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
15.40%
发文量
28
期刊介绍: Experts from around the globe come together in this important peer-reviewed forum to present compelling social science research on the entire East Asia region. Topics include democratic governance, military security, political culture, economic cooperation, human rights, and environmental concerns. Thought-provoking book reviews enhance each issue. Want more information information on Journal of East Asian Studies? Sign up for our E-Alerts for regular updates.
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