使用游戏中的投篮轨迹来更好地理解NBA的防守影响

IF 0.6 Q4 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM
L. Bornn, D. Daly-Grafstein
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引用次数: 3

摘要

随着NBA三分球的不断增加,外围防守的重要性从未如此之大。外线防守者通常是通过他们紧密的争投能力来评估他们的,但是争跳投到底是如何导致预期命中率下降的,我们能不能用这个观点来更好地评估外线防守者的能力?在本文中,我们分析了来自NBA的超过50,000个投篮轨迹,以解释为什么在投篮轨迹的影响方面,射手在激烈的竞争中往往会错过更多。我们提出了从这些射击轨迹数据中得出的各种结果。此外,将轨迹数据与防守者的身高、距离和比赛角度等特征相结合,我们不仅可以评估外线防守者,还可以评估射手对防守压力的适应能力。利用投篮轨迹和相应的投篮概率模型,我们能够创建比对手投篮命中率等传统指标更准确、更少变化的外线防守指标。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Using in-game shot trajectories to better understand defensive impact in the NBA
As 3-point shooting in the NBA continues to increase, the importance of perimeter defense has never been greater. Perimeter defenders are often evaluated by their ability to tightly contest shots, but how exactly does contesting a jump shot cause a decrease in expected shooting percentage, and can we use this insight to better assess perimeter defender ability? In this paper we analyze over 50,000 shot trajectories from the NBA to explain why, in terms of impact on shot trajectories, shooters tend to miss more when tightly contested. We present a variety of results derived from this shot trajectory data. Additionally, pairing trajectory data with features such as defender height, distance, and contest angle, we are able to evaluate not just perimeter defenders, but also shooters’ resilience to defensive pressure. Utilizing shot trajectories and corresponding modeled shot-make probabilities, we are able to create perimeter defensive metrics that are more accurate and less variable than traditional metrics like opponent field goal percentage.
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来源期刊
自引率
9.10%
发文量
16
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