Smart local energy systems as a societal project: Developing a Theory of Change

Smart local energy systems (SLES) have been promoted in policy as a solution to decarbonisation challenges which also bring wider benefits, such as community prosperity and energy affordability. But the combination of conditions required to enable their successful emergence and operation are still to be elaborated. This paper reports on the development of a Theory of Change (ToC) for the “societal project” of emergence of SLES with benefits. ToC is a process of making explicit the causal links by which activities lead to outcomes, surfacing assumptions, and recognising possible unintended consequences. We describe the ToC development process, involving consultation and collaboration across a research consortium. It consists of layers (e.g. users, skills, data and digital), and shows conditions considered necessary to deliver SLES, and for these to deliver wider benefits. It also provides interactive links to evidence emerging from the consortium, as well as policy/governance conditions and metrics. We reflect on potential uses of the ToC – internally to the consortium and externally – along with challenges we encountered in pursuing this approach. Policy implications relate to the importance of enabling conditions across multiple sectors, the absence of any of which could inhibit delivery of either SLES or their ensuing benefits.