房地产繁荣对中国生育率的影响:来自住房拥有率的视角

IF 1.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

International Regional Science Review Pub Date : 2022-01-21 DOI:10.1177/01600176211066472

Yinghao Pan, Hao‐Yen Yang

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引用次数: 3

摘要

由于财富效应和成本效应的关系，房价对生育率的影响在理论上是模糊的。然而，房价与生育率之间的关系对政策制定者至关重要，尤其是在发展中国家。本文构建了一个个人水平的面板数据集，随机抽取了4万多名具有详细生育史的中国女性，数据来自2010年人口普查。利用城市间房价增长随时间的变化和婚姻状况的影响，我们发现房价每上涨1000元，房主生育的可能性就会增加13.9%。住房拥有率在房价对生育率的影响中起着至关重要的作用。这些发现表明，在中国的样本期内，房价的财富效应主导了成本效应。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Impacts of Housing Booms on Fertility in China: A Perspective From Homeownership

Due to the nexus of wealth effect and cost effect, the impact of housing price on fertility is ambiguous in theory. However, the relation between housing price and fertility is essential for policymakers, especially in developing countries. This paper constructs an individual-level panel data set of over 40,000 randomly selected Chinese females with detailed fertility history during 2006–2010 from the Census 2010. Exploiting variation of housing price growth across cities over time and conditional on marriage status, we show that a 1,000 yuan upward shift in housing price induces the possibility of new birth by 13.9% for homeowners. Homeownership plays a vital role in housing price on fertility. These findings suggest that the wealth effect of housing price dominates the cost effect during the sample periods in China.

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来源期刊

International Regional Science Review Multiple-

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

13.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： International Regional Science Review serves as an international forum for economists, geographers, planners, and other social scientists to share important research findings and methodological breakthroughs. The journal serves as a catalyst for improving spatial and regional analysis within the social sciences and stimulating communication among the disciplines. IRSR deliberately helps define regional science by publishing key interdisciplinary survey articles that summarize and evaluate previous research and identify fruitful research directions. Focusing on issues of theory, method, and public policy where the spatial or regional dimension is central, IRSR strives to promote useful scholarly research that is securely tied to the real world.