{"title":"东帝汶经济概览:石油收入的终结","authors":"Charles Scheiner","doi":"10.1002/app5.333","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>As Timor-Leste nears the end of its petroleum-exporting era, the transition to a sustainable economy has become even more challenging due to partisan political competition, disastrous flooding and the pandemic. This article describes the current economic context, and deteriorating trends. After a brief discussion of the political situation and the impacts of COVID-19, it explores expenditure and income trends in recent state budgets, with a particular focus on dependency on oil and gas revenues and their investments, which pay for 80% of state spending and may run out within a decade. It then assesses in detail revenue prospects from current and future oil and gas activities, including Greater Sunrise and the planned Tasi Mane petroleum infrastructure project. The analysis shows that it is highly likely that resource revenue will continue to decline. Diversification is not an option; it is the only way forward.</p>","PeriodicalId":45839,"journal":{"name":"Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies","volume":"8 2","pages":"253-279"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2021-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/app5.333","citationCount":"7","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Timor-Leste economic survey: The end of petroleum income\",\"authors\":\"Charles Scheiner\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/app5.333\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>As Timor-Leste nears the end of its petroleum-exporting era, the transition to a sustainable economy has become even more challenging due to partisan political competition, disastrous flooding and the pandemic. This article describes the current economic context, and deteriorating trends. After a brief discussion of the political situation and the impacts of COVID-19, it explores expenditure and income trends in recent state budgets, with a particular focus on dependency on oil and gas revenues and their investments, which pay for 80% of state spending and may run out within a decade. It then assesses in detail revenue prospects from current and future oil and gas activities, including Greater Sunrise and the planned Tasi Mane petroleum infrastructure project. The analysis shows that it is highly likely that resource revenue will continue to decline. Diversification is not an option; it is the only way forward.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":45839,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies\",\"volume\":\"8 2\",\"pages\":\"253-279\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-09-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/app5.333\",\"citationCount\":\"7\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"90\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/app5.333\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"社会学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"AREA STUDIES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies","FirstCategoryId":"90","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/app5.333","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"AREA STUDIES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Timor-Leste economic survey: The end of petroleum income
As Timor-Leste nears the end of its petroleum-exporting era, the transition to a sustainable economy has become even more challenging due to partisan political competition, disastrous flooding and the pandemic. This article describes the current economic context, and deteriorating trends. After a brief discussion of the political situation and the impacts of COVID-19, it explores expenditure and income trends in recent state budgets, with a particular focus on dependency on oil and gas revenues and their investments, which pay for 80% of state spending and may run out within a decade. It then assesses in detail revenue prospects from current and future oil and gas activities, including Greater Sunrise and the planned Tasi Mane petroleum infrastructure project. The analysis shows that it is highly likely that resource revenue will continue to decline. Diversification is not an option; it is the only way forward.
期刊介绍：
Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies is the flagship journal of the Crawford School of Public Policy at The Australian National University. It is a peer-reviewed journal that targets research in policy studies in Australia, Asia and the Pacific, across a discipline focus that includes economics, political science, governance, development and the environment. Specific themes of recent interest include health and education, aid, migration, inequality, poverty reduction, energy, climate and the environment, food policy, public administration, the role of the private sector in public policy, trade, foreign policy, natural resource management and development policy. Papers on a range of topics that speak to various disciplines, the region and policy makers are encouraged. The goal of the journal is to break down barriers across disciplines, and generate policy impact. Submissions will be reviewed on the basis of content, policy relevance and readability.
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