{"title":"巴西COVID-19实际感染人数的估计和可能的情况","authors":"P. H. Cintra, Felipe Fontinele Nunes","doi":"10.1101/2020.05.03.20052779","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n This paper attempts to provide methods to estimate the real scenario of the novel coronavirus pandemic in Brazil, specifically in the states of Sao Paulo, Pernambuco, Espirito Santo, Amazonas and the Federal District. By the use of a SEIRD mathematical model with age division, we predict the infection and death curves, stating the peak date for Brazil and above states. We also carry out a prediction for the ICU demand in these states and for how severe possible collapse in the local health system would be. Finally, we establish some future scenarios including the relaxation on social isolation and the introduction of vaccines and other efficient therapeutic treatments against the virus.\n","PeriodicalId":64814,"journal":{"name":"传染病建模(英文)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-05-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"19","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Estimative of real number of infections by COVID-19 in Brazil and possible scenarios\",\"authors\":\"P. H. Cintra, Felipe Fontinele Nunes\",\"doi\":\"10.1101/2020.05.03.20052779\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n This paper attempts to provide methods to estimate the real scenario of the novel coronavirus pandemic in Brazil, specifically in the states of Sao Paulo, Pernambuco, Espirito Santo, Amazonas and the Federal District. By the use of a SEIRD mathematical model with age division, we predict the infection and death curves, stating the peak date for Brazil and above states. We also carry out a prediction for the ICU demand in these states and for how severe possible collapse in the local health system would be. Finally, we establish some future scenarios including the relaxation on social isolation and the introduction of vaccines and other efficient therapeutic treatments against the virus.\\n\",\"PeriodicalId\":64814,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"传染病建模(英文)\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2020-05-08\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"19\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"传染病建模(英文)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"91\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.03.20052779\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"INFECTIOUS DISEASES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"传染病建模(英文)","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.03.20052779","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Estimative of real number of infections by COVID-19 in Brazil and possible scenarios
This paper attempts to provide methods to estimate the real scenario of the novel coronavirus pandemic in Brazil, specifically in the states of Sao Paulo, Pernambuco, Espirito Santo, Amazonas and the Federal District. By the use of a SEIRD mathematical model with age division, we predict the infection and death curves, stating the peak date for Brazil and above states. We also carry out a prediction for the ICU demand in these states and for how severe possible collapse in the local health system would be. Finally, we establish some future scenarios including the relaxation on social isolation and the introduction of vaccines and other efficient therapeutic treatments against the virus.