巴西COVID-19实际感染人数的估计和可能的情况

IF 3 Q2 INFECTIOUS DISEASES
P. H. Cintra, Felipe Fontinele Nunes
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引用次数: 19

摘要

本文试图提供方法来估计新型冠状病毒大流行在巴西的真实情况,特别是在圣保罗州、伯南布哥州、圣埃斯皮里图州、亚马逊州和联邦区。通过使用带有年龄划分的SEIRD数学模型,我们预测了感染和死亡曲线,说明了巴西及以上各州的峰值日期。我们还对这些州的重症监护室需求以及当地卫生系统崩溃的严重程度进行了预测。最后,我们确定了一些未来的情景,包括放松社会隔离,引入疫苗和其他有效的病毒治疗方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Estimative of real number of infections by COVID-19 in Brazil and possible scenarios
This paper attempts to provide methods to estimate the real scenario of the novel coronavirus pandemic in Brazil, specifically in the states of Sao Paulo, Pernambuco, Espirito Santo, Amazonas and the Federal District. By the use of a SEIRD mathematical model with age division, we predict the infection and death curves, stating the peak date for Brazil and above states. We also carry out a prediction for the ICU demand in these states and for how severe possible collapse in the local health system would be. Finally, we establish some future scenarios including the relaxation on social isolation and the introduction of vaccines and other efficient therapeutic treatments against the virus.
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CiteScore
18.30
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