Dietary modeling of greenhouse gases using OECD meat consumption/retail availability estimates

Abstract Research has demonstrated different carbon footprints, based on portion estimations. However, previous estimates are low and often omit the impact of food waste. For example, a high-level of daily meat consumption has been estimated at 100 g, which is less than a typical “quarter pounder” hamburger. We used the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) annual estimates of national retail availability, and applied a mathematical model to prorate other research results to determine a meat portion equal to current OECD statistics, and also projected the diets to 2500 and 3250 kcal, to include consumer and retail waste. Once prorated, the 14 national studies are contrasted and analyzed for reasonableness against OECD data pertaining to U.S., U.K., E.U., vegetarian and vegan diets. We quantify how previous studies underestimated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and show that previous GHG study results for the highest tier most accurately predict average national dietary consumption.