Principal Turnover: Using Teacher-Assessments of Principal Quality to Understand who Leaves the Principalship

Purpose: The purpose of this article is to estimate the relationship between principal quality and turnover. Principals can have potentially large effects on student outcomes. When school leaders leave their roles, they cause disruptive effects to the school’s climate. If effective principals are more likely to leave, the negative effects of principal turnover are likely exacerbated. Relatively little, however, is known about the quality of principals who leave the principalship. Research design: We use teachers’ perceptions of their principals as a measure of principal quality to understand the quality of principals who leave schools. We address this research question in New York City public schools from 2013 to 2016, and then replicate it at the national level using the Schools and Staffing Survey data from 2008 to 2012. To understand how principal quality relates to principal turnover, we run linear probability regressions of principal exits on (teacher-assessed) principal quality, controlling for a set of teacher, principal, school, district/state, and time characteristics. Findings: We find that higher quality principals are less likely to leave their schools. This finding persists across school contexts and time, lending robustness to our results. Conclusions: Findings suggest that inasmuch as principal turnover is a concern, it is not driven by higher quality principals. Districts should therefore focus on recruiting more higher quality principals as opposed to focusing on reducing overall principal turnover. Moving forward, research should focus on differential attrition patterns so that efforts to retain principals can be better targeted.