青年建设和平对高质量和平影响的多层次时间序列网络分析

IF 0.7 Q4 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY
Laura K. Taylor, Celia Bähr
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引用次数: 1

摘要

目的60%以上的武装冲突再次发生;即使签署了和平协议,未来冲突的种子也已播下。战争的周期性要求关注那些能够随着时间的推移打破这种模式的年轻人。为了解决这一关切,发展性建设和平模式要求采取动态、多层次和纵向的办法。本研究采用创新的统计方法,旨在调查青年建设和平的四个方面与高质量和平之间的关系。设计/方法/方法对2011年至2020年期间包含193个国家的数据集进行了多级时间序列网络分析。这种统计方法可以进行复杂的建模,揭示通过快速证据评估确定的不同青年建设和平层面(即教育、参与、信息、包容)如何随着时间的推移促进高质量和平的新模式。这种方法不仅评估国家之间的差异,而且评估国家内部的变化。发现虽然国内同期网络显示出与教育的积极联系,但时间网络在所有四个方面都显示出对高质量和平的显著滞后影响。国家间网络表明,平均而言,教育和信息对高质量和平产生了重大的直接影响,而包容和参与则产生了间接影响。独创性/价值这种方法展示了多层次时间序列网络分析的新颖应用,以探索质量和平的动态发展,捕捉稳定和变化。该分析说明了青年建设和平的层面如何影响全球宏观系统中的高质量和平。因此,对高质量和平的调查表明,和平科学并不需要暴力冲突。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A multi-level, time-series network analysis of the impact of youth peacebuilding on quality peace
Purpose Over 60% of armed conflicts re-occur; the seed of future conflict is sown even as a peace agreement is signed. The cyclical nature of war calls for a focus on youth who can disrupt this pattern over time. Addressing this concern, the developmental peace-building model calls for a dynamic, multi-level and longitudinal approach. Using an innovative statistical approach, this study aims to investigate the associations among four youth peace-building dimensions and quality peace. Design/methodology/approach Multi-level time-series network analysis of a data set containing 193 countries and spanning the years between 2011 and 2020 was performed. This statistical approach allows for complex modelling that can reveal new patterns of how different youth peace-building dimensions (i.e. education, engagement, information, inclusion), identified through rapid evidence assessment, promote quality peace over time. Such a methodology not only assesses between-country differences but also within-country change. Findings While the within-country contemporaneous network shows positive links for education, the temporal network shows significant lagged effects for all four dimensions on quality peace. The between-country network indicates significant direct effects of education and information, on average, and indirect effects of inclusion and engagement, on quality peace. Originality/value This approach demonstrates a novel application of multi-level time-series network analysis to explore the dynamic development of quality peace, capturing both stability and change. The analysis illustrates how youth peace-building dimensions impact quality peace in the macro-system globally. This investigation of quality peace thus illustrates that the science of peace does not necessitate violent conflict.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
32
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