他们可能都是掠夺者。

IF 1.4 4区 医学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY
Psychiatry Psychology and Law Pub Date : 2022-06-13 eCollection Date: 2023-01-01 DOI:10.1080/13218719.2022.2073286
Jeff P Hamm
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引用次数: 0

摘要

圆圈理论预测,大多数罪犯将居住在包围犯罪地点模式的最小圆圈内,该模式定义了罪犯的犯罪范围。居住在犯罪范围内的人反映了掠夺者决策模式,其余人反映了通勤者决策模式。对掠夺者进行随机模拟,以确定最小圆的失败率,从而正确识别掠夺者决策模式。随着犯罪数量的减少,失败率更高,但这是系统性的和可预测的。此外,已公布的掠夺者与通勤者模式的比率与预测的故障率非常一致。提出了一种估计罪犯犯罪区域真实大小的方法,并表明绝大多数罪犯可能采用掠夺者决策模式,而真正的通勤者可能远低于圆测试所示。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

They might all be marauders.

They might all be marauders.

They might all be marauders.

Circle theory predicts most offenders will reside within the smallest circle that encloses a pattern of offense locations, which defines the offender's crime range. Those who reside within the crime range reflect a marauder decision pattern, with the remainder reflecting a commuter decision pattern. Random simulations of marauders were conducted to determine the failure rate of the smallest circle to correctly identify a marauder decision pattern. Failure rates were higher as the number of offenses was reduced, but were systematic and predictable. Moreover, the published rates of the marauder vs commuter patterns correspond well with the predicted failure rate. A method for estimating the true size of an offender's criminal territory is presented and it is suggested that the vast majority of offenders are likely to be adopting a marauder decision pattern, and that true commuters may be far less than indicated by the circle test.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
7.70%
发文量
48
期刊介绍: Psychiatry, Psychology and Law is rapidly becoming a driving force behind the up-to-date examination of forensic issues in psychiatry and psychology. It is a fully refereed journal with outstanding academic and professional representation on its editorial board and is aimed at health, mental health and legal professionals. The journal aims to publish and disseminate information regarding research and development in forensic psychiatry, forensic psychology and areas of law and other disciplines in which psychiatry and psychology have a relevance. Features of Psychiatry, Psychology and Law include review articles; analyses of professional issues, controversies and developments; case studies; original empirical studies; book reviews.
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