[An analysis of long-term survival trends for nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Qidong, Jiangsu].

Objective: To analyze the survival of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients in Qidong from 1972 to 2016, and provide a basis for the prognosis evaluation and prevention for nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients. Methods: A total of 1 060 registered nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients were followed up for survival outcomes until December 31, 2021. Observed survival rate (OSR) and relative survival rate (RSR) was calculated by Hakulinen method in SURV3.01 software, and Hakulinen's likelihood ratio test was used for statistical difference comparison. Age-standardized relative survival rate (ARSR) was calculated according to the International Cancer Survival Standard (ICSS). Joinpoint 4.7.0.0 software was used to conduct the annual average percentage change (AAPC) in nasopharyngeal carcinoma survival rate. The period from 1972 to 2016 is divided into 9 periods for grouping processing according to 5 years. Results: The OSR of nasopharyngeal carcinoma at 1, 5, 10 years were 63.02%, 34.70% and 24.72%, the RSR at 1, 5, 10 years were 64.44%, 38.98% and 31.64%, respectively. The uptrends of RSR in the nine periods were statistically significant (χ(2)=112.16, P<0.001). The 1, 5, 10 years RSR for males were 62.66%, 35.89% and 27.94%, while the 1, 5, 10 years RSR for females were 68.30%, 45.67% and 39.68%, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference in RSR between males and females (χ(2)=14.16, P=0.656). The 5-year RSR for the age groups of 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74, and over 75 years old were 52.83%, 40.92%, 42.64%, 38.65%, 27.23% and 28.88%, respectively. There was a statistically significant difference in RSR among different age groups (χ(2)=42.33, P=0.003). Moreover, the ARSR of nasopharyngeal carcinoma at 1, 5, 10 years were 63.64%, 37.33% and 27.10%, for males were 61.82%, 35.60% and 25.20%, for females were 68.36%, 43.12% and 32.93%. Period trend showed that the AAPC of 5-ARSR was 2.71% (t=7.47, P<0.001) from 1972 to 2016 in Qidong. The AAPC of 5-ARSR in males and females were 2.63% (t=4.98, P=0.002) and 2.71% (t=6.08, P=0.001). There was statistically significant increase in 5-year ARSR among both genders. Furthermore, the AAPC of 5-year RSR among 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65-74 and 75+ years old were 2.16% (t=4.28, P=0.004), 3.38% (t=5.06, P=0.001), 1.99% (t=2.82, P=0.026), 2.82% (t=3.39, P=0.012), 2.20% (t=2.82, P=0.026) and -0.91% (t=-0.42, P=0.689), respectively. Except for the 75+ years old age group, the other age groups were significantly upward trend. Conclusions: The overall survival rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Qidong from 1972 to 2016 has shown an upward trend. It is necessary to introduce standardized multi-disciplinary treatment mode to improve treatment effect and survival rate.