Key Considerations in Planning for Substance Use Treatment: Estimating Treatment Need and Demand.

Objective: Estimates of the extent of treatment need (defined by the presence of a diagnosis for which there is an effective treatment available) and treatment demand (defined as treatment seeking) are essential parts of effective treatment planning, service provision, and treatment funding. This article reviews the existing literature on approaches to estimating need and demand and the use of models to inform such estimation, and then considers the implications for health planners.

Method: A thematic review of the literature was undertaken, with a focus on covering the key concepts and research methods that have been used to date.

Results: Both need and demand are important estimates in planning for services but contain many difficulties in moving from the theory of measurement to the practicalities of establishing these figures. Furthermore, the simple quantum of need or demand is limited in its usefulness unless it is matched with consideration of different treatment types and their relative intensity, and/or explored as a function of geography and subpopulation. Modeling can assist with establishing more fine-tuned planning estimates, and is able to take into account both client severity and the various treatment types that might be available.

Conclusions: Moving from relatively simplistic estimates of need and demand for treatment, this review has shown that although such estimation can inform national or subnational treatment planning, more sophisticated models are required for alcohol and other drug treatment planning. These can help health planners to determine the appropriate amount and mix of treatments for substance use disorders.