{"title":"45岁人群性传播感染的趋势和预测 英格兰岁及以上人群：国家监测数据分析。","authors":"C Camacho, E M Camacho, D M Lee","doi":"10.1177/17579139221106348","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Aims: </strong>We describe the epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV in people aged ⩾45 years in England and provide future projections about the burden of STIs in this age group.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Analysis of national surveillance data in England from 2014 to 2019 for chlamydia, gonorrhoea, herpes, syphilis, anogenital warts and HIV was carried out. Time trends were assessed by the Poisson regression and reported using incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Two scenarios were modelled to predict the number of new STI diagnoses and associated costs in 2040.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2019, there were 37,692 new STI diagnoses in people ⩾45 years in England. Between 2014 and 2019, there was a significant increase in the rate of new STI diagnoses in men (IRR = 1.05, <i>p</i> = .05) and those aged 45-64 years (IRR = 1.04, <i>p</i> = .05). Absolute numbers of new STI diagnoses in men who have sex with men increased by 76% between 2014 and 2019 (IRR = 1.15, <i>p</i> < .001). In adults aged ⩾50 years, the number of episodes of care for HIV increased over time (age = 50-64 years, IRR = 1.10; age = 65+ years, IRR = 1.13; <i>p</i> <.001). The modelled scenarios predicted an increase in STI diagnoses and costs in older people by 2040.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>STI rates in England are increasing in people aged ⩾45 years. The population is ageing and older people will contribute an increasing burden to STI costs if this trend continues. The reasons for this trend are not fully understood and further longitudinal epidemiological research is needed. Sexual health promotion campaigns and healthcare interventions targeted at older people should be prioritised.</p>","PeriodicalId":47256,"journal":{"name":"Perspectives in Public Health","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10576406/pdf/","citationCount":"5","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Trends and projections in sexually transmitted infections in people aged 45 years and older in England: analysis of national surveillance data.\",\"authors\":\"C Camacho, E M Camacho, D M Lee\",\"doi\":\"10.1177/17579139221106348\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Aims: </strong>We describe the epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV in people aged ⩾45 years in England and provide future projections about the burden of STIs in this age group.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Analysis of national surveillance data in England from 2014 to 2019 for chlamydia, gonorrhoea, herpes, syphilis, anogenital warts and HIV was carried out. Time trends were assessed by the Poisson regression and reported using incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Two scenarios were modelled to predict the number of new STI diagnoses and associated costs in 2040.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2019, there were 37,692 new STI diagnoses in people ⩾45 years in England. Between 2014 and 2019, there was a significant increase in the rate of new STI diagnoses in men (IRR = 1.05, <i>p</i> = .05) and those aged 45-64 years (IRR = 1.04, <i>p</i> = .05). Absolute numbers of new STI diagnoses in men who have sex with men increased by 76% between 2014 and 2019 (IRR = 1.15, <i>p</i> < .001). In adults aged ⩾50 years, the number of episodes of care for HIV increased over time (age = 50-64 years, IRR = 1.10; age = 65+ years, IRR = 1.13; <i>p</i> <.001). The modelled scenarios predicted an increase in STI diagnoses and costs in older people by 2040.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>STI rates in England are increasing in people aged ⩾45 years. The population is ageing and older people will contribute an increasing burden to STI costs if this trend continues. The reasons for this trend are not fully understood and further longitudinal epidemiological research is needed. Sexual health promotion campaigns and healthcare interventions targeted at older people should be prioritised.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47256,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Perspectives in Public Health\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10576406/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"5\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Perspectives in Public Health\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1177/17579139221106348\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2022/6/29 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Perspectives in Public Health","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/17579139221106348","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2022/6/29 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
Trends and projections in sexually transmitted infections in people aged 45 years and older in England: analysis of national surveillance data.
Aims: We describe the epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and HIV in people aged ⩾45 years in England and provide future projections about the burden of STIs in this age group.
Methods: Analysis of national surveillance data in England from 2014 to 2019 for chlamydia, gonorrhoea, herpes, syphilis, anogenital warts and HIV was carried out. Time trends were assessed by the Poisson regression and reported using incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Two scenarios were modelled to predict the number of new STI diagnoses and associated costs in 2040.
Results: In 2019, there were 37,692 new STI diagnoses in people ⩾45 years in England. Between 2014 and 2019, there was a significant increase in the rate of new STI diagnoses in men (IRR = 1.05, p = .05) and those aged 45-64 years (IRR = 1.04, p = .05). Absolute numbers of new STI diagnoses in men who have sex with men increased by 76% between 2014 and 2019 (IRR = 1.15, p < .001). In adults aged ⩾50 years, the number of episodes of care for HIV increased over time (age = 50-64 years, IRR = 1.10; age = 65+ years, IRR = 1.13; p <.001). The modelled scenarios predicted an increase in STI diagnoses and costs in older people by 2040.
Conclusion: STI rates in England are increasing in people aged ⩾45 years. The population is ageing and older people will contribute an increasing burden to STI costs if this trend continues. The reasons for this trend are not fully understood and further longitudinal epidemiological research is needed. Sexual health promotion campaigns and healthcare interventions targeted at older people should be prioritised.
期刊介绍：
Perspectives in Public Health is a bi-monthly peer-reviewed journal. It is practice orientated and features current topics and opinions; news and views on current health issues; case studies; book reviews; letters to the Editor; as well as updates on the Society"s work. The journal also commissions articles for themed issues and publishes original peer-reviewed articles. Perspectives in Public Health"s primary aim is to be an invaluable resource for the Society"s members, who are health-promoting professionals from many disciplines, including environmental health, health protection, health and safety, food safety and nutrition, building and engineering, primary care, academia and government.
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