Arijit Chakraborty, Dipankar Das, Sajal Mitra, Debashis De, Anindya J Pal
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Forecasting adversities of COVID-19 waves in India using intelligent computing.
The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic outburst triggered enormously all over India. This ill-fated and fatal brawl affected millions of Indian citizens, with many active and infected Indians struggling to recover from this deadly disease to date, leading to a grief situation. The present situation warrants developing a robust and sound forecasting model to evaluate the adversities of the epidemic with reasonable accuracy to assist officials in curbing this hazard. Consequently, we employed Auto-ARIMA, Auto-ETS, Auto-MLP, Auto-ELM, AM, MLP and proposed ELM methods for assessing accumulative infected COVID-19 individuals by the end of July 2021. We made 90 days of advanced forecasting, i.e., up to 24 July 2021, for the number of cumulative infected COVID-19 cases of India using all seven methods in 15 days' intervals. We fine-tuned the hyper-parameters to enhance the prediction performance of these models and observed that the proposed ELM model offers satisfactory accuracy with MAPE of 5.01, and it rendered better accuracy than the other six models. To comprehend the dataset's nature, five features are extracted. The resulting feature values encouraged further investigation of the models for an updated dataset, where the proposed model provides encouraging results.
期刊介绍:
Innovations in Systems and Software Engineering: A NASA Journal addresses issues and innovations in Systems Engineering, Systems Integration, Software Engineering, Software Development and other related areas that are specifically of interest to NASA. The journal includes peer-reviewed world-class technical papers on topics of research, development and practice related to NASA''s missions and projects, topics of interest to NASA for future use, and topics describing problem areas for NASA together with potential solutions. Papers that do not address issues related to NASA are of course very welcome, provided that they address topics that NASA might like to consider for the future. Papers are solicited from NASA and government employees, contractors, NASA-supported academic and industrial partners, and non-NASA-supported academics and industrialists both in the USA and worldwide. The journal includes updates on NASA innovations, articles on NASA initiatives, papers looking at educational activities, and a State-of-the-Art section that gives an overview of specific topic areas in a comprehensive format written by an expert in the field.