土耳其房地产市场是否存在泡沫?

Yener Coskun, Charalambos Pitros
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引用次数: 7

摘要

本文的目的是研究2006-2018年期间土耳其房地产市场是否存在泡沫。结合非理性泡沫理论,本研究应用Pitros和Arayici(国际经济学杂志,9(2):190-221,2016)。10.1108/IJHMA-01-2015-0002)气泡算法模型。实证结果表明,土耳其房地产市场在2013-2017年期间存在泡沫,泡沫的峰值/最后一年是2017年,泡沫破裂发生在2018年。本研究最重要的贡献在于,它首次使用非理性泡沫理论的前提记录了土耳其历史上的房地产泡沫事件,并首次应用算法方法评估了2006年至2018年期间的泡沫风险。至于影响,这个记录模型可以作为一种工具来提高政策制定者对早期识别房地产泡沫的认识。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Is there a bubbly euphoria in the Turkish housing market?

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether there is a bubble in the Turkish housing market during the period of 2006-2018. In conjunction with the irrational bubble theory, this study applies the Pitros and Arayici (Int J Hous Mark Anal 9(2):190-221, 2016. 10.1108/IJHMA-01-2015-0002) bubble algorithmic model. The empirical results reveal that the Turkish housing market was in a bubble during 2013-2017 period, the peak/last year of the bubble is the year 2017 and that the bubble-bust occurred in 2018. The foremost contribution of this study is that it is the first to document a historical housing bubble episode for Turkey using the premises of irrational bubble theory and the first to apply an algorithmic approach to assess the bubble risk for the period of 2006 and 2018. As to the implications, this documented model may be used as a tool to enhance policymakers' knowledge toward the early identification of housing bubbles.

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