{"title":"城市密度与 COVID-19：了解美国的经验。","authors":"Felipe Carozzi, Sandro Provenzano, Sefi Roth","doi":"10.1007/s00168-022-01193-z","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This paper revisits the debate around the link between population density and the severity of COVID-19 spread in the USA. We do so by conducting an empirical analysis based on graphical evidence, regression analysis and instrumental variable strategies borrowed from the agglomeration literature. Studying the period between the start of the epidemic and the beginning of the vaccination campaign at the end of 2020, we find that the cross-sectional relationship between density and COVID-19 deaths changed as the year evolved. Initially, denser counties experienced more COVID-19 deaths. Yet, by December, the relationship between COVID deaths and urban density was completely flat. This is consistent with evidence indicating density affected the timing of the outbreak-with denser locations more likely to have an early outbreak-yet had no influence on time-adjusted COVID-19 cases and deaths. Using data from Google, Facebook, the US Census and other sources, we investigate potential mechanisms behind these findings.</p>","PeriodicalId":47951,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Regional Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2022-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9702884/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Urban density and COVID-19: understanding the US experience.\",\"authors\":\"Felipe Carozzi, Sandro Provenzano, Sefi Roth\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s00168-022-01193-z\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>This paper revisits the debate around the link between population density and the severity of COVID-19 spread in the USA. We do so by conducting an empirical analysis based on graphical evidence, regression analysis and instrumental variable strategies borrowed from the agglomeration literature. Studying the period between the start of the epidemic and the beginning of the vaccination campaign at the end of 2020, we find that the cross-sectional relationship between density and COVID-19 deaths changed as the year evolved. Initially, denser counties experienced more COVID-19 deaths. Yet, by December, the relationship between COVID deaths and urban density was completely flat. This is consistent with evidence indicating density affected the timing of the outbreak-with denser locations more likely to have an early outbreak-yet had no influence on time-adjusted COVID-19 cases and deaths. Using data from Google, Facebook, the US Census and other sources, we investigate potential mechanisms behind these findings.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47951,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Annals of Regional Science\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-11-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9702884/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Annals of Regional Science\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-022-01193-z\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Annals of Regional Science","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-022-01193-z","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Urban density and COVID-19: understanding the US experience.
This paper revisits the debate around the link between population density and the severity of COVID-19 spread in the USA. We do so by conducting an empirical analysis based on graphical evidence, regression analysis and instrumental variable strategies borrowed from the agglomeration literature. Studying the period between the start of the epidemic and the beginning of the vaccination campaign at the end of 2020, we find that the cross-sectional relationship between density and COVID-19 deaths changed as the year evolved. Initially, denser counties experienced more COVID-19 deaths. Yet, by December, the relationship between COVID deaths and urban density was completely flat. This is consistent with evidence indicating density affected the timing of the outbreak-with denser locations more likely to have an early outbreak-yet had no influence on time-adjusted COVID-19 cases and deaths. Using data from Google, Facebook, the US Census and other sources, we investigate potential mechanisms behind these findings.
期刊介绍：
The Annals of Regional Science presents high-quality research in the interdisciplinary field of regional and urban studies. The journal publishes papers which make a new or substantial contribution to the body of knowledge in which the spatial dimension plays a fundamental role, including regional economics, resource management, location theory, urban and regional planning, transportation and communication, population distribution and environmental quality. The Annals of Regional Science is the official journal of the Western Regional Science Association.
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