量化 COVID-19 的结局：新常态是否触手可及？

IF 1.7 3区管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT

System Dynamics Review Pub Date : 2022-08-24 DOI:10.1002/sdr.1715

Hazhir Rahmandad, John Sterman

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引用次数: 0

摘要

根除 COVID-19 可望不可及。我们是否已接近一种 "新常态"，即人们可以摆脱限制性非药物干预措施（NPIs），但却面临可以承受的疾病负担？答案取决于持续存在的风险与社区对这些风险的承受能力。利用横跨 93 个国家的 COVID-19 大流行的详细模型，我们估算了决定风险和应对措施的生物和行为因素，并预测了 COVID-19 的可能进程。由于疫苗接种、之前的感染、更好的治疗方法以及较轻的 Omicron 变种，感染死亡率已大幅下降。然而，根据对死亡的估计容忍度，大多数国家还没有准备好在没有任何 NPIs 的情况下与 COVID-19 共存。在全球范围内，奥米克隆的传播性增加，再加上免疫力下降，导致反复出现再感染、住院和死亡，使许多国家出现新常态的情况变得更加复杂。© 2022 作者。系统动力学评论》由 John Wiley & Sons Ltd 代表系统动力学学会出版。

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Quantifying the COVID-19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach?

Eradication of COVID-19 is out of reach. Are we close to a "new normal" in which people can leave behind restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) yet face a tolerable burden of disease? The answer depends on the ongoing risks versus communities' tolerance for those risks. Using a detailed model of the COVID-19 pandemic spanning 93 countries, we estimate the biological and behavioral factors determining the risks and responses, and project the likely course of COVID-19. Infection fatality rates have fallen significantly due to vaccination, prior infections, better treatments, and the less severe Omicron variant. Yet based on their estimated tolerance for deaths, most nations are not ready to live with COVID-19 without any NPIs. Across the world the increased transmissibility of Omicron, combined with the decay of immunity, leads to repeated episodes of reinfections, hospitalizations, and deaths, complicating the emergence of a new normal in many nations. © 2022 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.

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来源期刊

System Dynamics Review Multiple-

CiteScore

6.60

自引率

8.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： The System Dynamics Review exists to communicate to a wide audience advances in the application of the perspectives and methods of system dynamics to societal, technical, managerial, and environmental problems. The Review publishes: advances in mathematical modelling and computer simulation of dynamic feedback systems; advances in methods of policy analysis based on information feedback and circular causality; generic structures (dynamic feedback systems that support particular widely applicable behavioural insights); system dynamics contributions to theory building in the social and natural sciences; policy studies and debate emphasizing the role of feedback and circular causality in problem behaviour.