Fecal Calprotectin is an Accurate Tool and Correlated to Seo Index in Prediction of Relapse in Iranian Patients With Ulcerative Colitis.

Background: The natural clinical course of Ulcerative Colitis (UC) is characterized by episodes of relapse and remission. Fecal Calprotectin (FC) is a relatively new marker of intestinal inflammation and is an available, non-expensive tool for predicting relapse of quiescent UC. The Seo colitis activity index is a clinical index for assessment of the severity of UC.

Objectives: The present study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of FC and the Seo colitis activity index and their correlation in prediction of UC exacerbation.

Patients and methods: In this prospective cohort study, 157 patients with clinical and endoscopic diagnosis of UC selected randomly from 1273 registered patients in Fars province's IBD registry center in Shiraz, Iran, were followed from October 2012 to October 2013 for 12 months or shorter, if they had a relapse. Two patients left the study before completion and one patient had relapse because of discontinuation of drugs. The participants' clinical and serum factors were evaluated every three months. Furthermore, stool samples were collected at the beginning of study and every three months and FC concentration (commercially available enzyme linked immunoassay) and the Seo Index were assessed. Then univariate analysis, multiple variable logistic regression, Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve analysis, and Pearson's correlation test (r) were used for statistical analysis of data.

Results: According to the results, 74 patients (48.1%) relapsed during the follow-up (33 men and 41 women). Mean ± SD of FC was 862.82 ± 655.97 μg/g and 163.19 ± 215.85 μg/g in relapsing and non-relapsing patients, respectively (P < 0.001). Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that age, number of previous relapses, FC and the Seo index were significant predictors of relapse. ROC curve analysis of FC level and Seo activity index for prediction of relapse demonstrated area under the curve of 0.882 (P < 0.001) and 0.92 1(P < 0.001), respectively. Besides, FC level of 341 μg/g was identified as the cut-off point with 11.2% and 79.7% relapse rate below and above this point, respectively. Additionally, Pearson correlation coefficient (r) between FC and the Seo index was significant in prediction of relapse (r = 0.63, P < 0.001).

Conclusions: As a simple and noninvasive marker, FC is highly accurate and significantly correlated to the Seo activity index in prediction of relapse in the course of quiescent UC in Iranian patients.