Navigating energy poverty under policy uncertainty: The interaction of geopolitical risk and energy transition

Access to affordable and reliable energy continues to be a significant global challenge; nevertheless, the impact of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions on energy poverty has received inadequate consideration. This study examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on energy poverty at the national level, exploring the mitigating role of geopolitical risk and the mediating influence of energy transition. This study employs a panel dataset of monthly observations from 41 countries, including members of the ASEAN and EU, covering 2003–2024. Utilizing a global panel dataset and advanced regression methodologies, we find that increasing economic policy uncertainty worsens energy poverty, especially in emerging countries. Nonetheless, geopolitical risk weakens the relationship, highlighting its complex impact on national energy vulnerability. Moreover, advancements in energy transition partially mediates this relationship, substantially mitigate the effects of policy uncertainty, reinforcing the significance of renewable energy adoption. The results highlight the immediate requirement for integrated policy measures and rapid energy transition strategies to ensure fair access to sustainable energy and attain global energy sustainability objectives.