Advancing sustainability transformations in agriculture: An agent-based life cycle assessment for supporting policymaking

The European Green Deal (EGD) aims for agriculture to contribute positively to climate change mitigation and nature preservation while meeting growing societal needs for food, energy, and biomaterials. Delivering comprehensive policy action efficiently requires decision-support tools to assess the outcomes of interventions across multiple, and potentially conflicting, goals. By means of agent-based (territorial) life cycle assessment, we evaluate the effect of removing coupled cattle support and pricing greenhouse gas emissions of agricultural products in two regions in Southern Sweden as representative cases for intensive and extensive agriculture in the EU. Regional production features influenced policy outcomes by affecting the profitability of possible production activities, and thereby the economic viability of alternatives to cattle. Production changes abroad were critical for the environmental lifecycle performance of the evaluated policy reforms, given the relatively low environmental impacts of Swedish production compared to global averages. Our ex-ante approach offers decision support by discerning the implications of policy interventions on the regional structure of production and subsequent effects on the environment, considering both regional and global aspects of the EGD objectives for agriculture. Ultimately, we hope our analysis can facilitate policymaking to speed the transition of agriculture towards EGD objectives.