A Combined Prioritization Methodology for Developing Cities to Replace and Decarbonize their Public Bus Networks: Case Study of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

The research aims to advance decarbonization of transportation by offering a prioritization scheme for replacing fossil-fueled powered buses with low-emission ones. This prioritized replacement scheme of both depot and route conversion is an optimization of a three-phased conversion strategy. It considers the financial costs associated with electric bus (e-bus) deployment and operations, as well as policy mechanisms to support the economic viability of low-emission buses (LEB). The study addresses the mobility transformations research gap of developing cities in a network wide context with the incorporation of LEB models and required policy intervention. The scope of the study includes both 12-meter and 9-meter buses, while considering different technical requirements for both bus types. The results of the study deliver a comprehensive transition roadmap with an embedded prioritization scheme outlined for both bus routes and service depots. The proposed scenario of subsidies and carbon tax policies provides a context of a plausible landscape where low-emission buses remain cost competitive with diesel buses in terms of Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). The case study results explain and illustrate how effective technical and financial measures can help Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam achieve a trajectory toward a complete green transition of the urban bus network by 2040.