估计风险因素减少对新西兰痴呆症患病率的影响

IF 13 1区医学 Q1 CLINICAL NEUROLOGY

Alzheimer's & Dementia Pub Date : 2025-07-04 DOI:10.1002/alz.70440

Etuini Ma'u, Naaheed Mukadam, Gill Livingston, Sebastian Walsh, Susanne Röhr, Carol Brayne, Gary Cheung, Sarah Cullum

{"title":"估计风险因素减少对新西兰痴呆症患病率的影响","authors":"Etuini Ma'u, Naaheed Mukadam, Gill Livingston, Sebastian Walsh, Susanne Röhr, Carol Brayne, Gary Cheung, Sarah Cullum","doi":"10.1002/alz.70440","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <h3> INTRODUCTION</h3>\n \n <p>We aimed to estimate the prevention potential associated with a reduction in risk factor prevalence and the subsequent impact on dementia prevalence projections over time</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> METHODS</h3>\n \n <p>We calculated potential impact fraction (PIF) of a 15% and 25% proportional reduction in risk factor prevalence for 12 modifiable dementia risk factors for New Zealand, and individually for the four main ethnic groups, then modeled this over a 30-year period.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> RESULTS</h3>\n \n <p>The PIF for the total NZ population following a 15% risk factor reduction was 14.6% (95% confidence interval: 7.7–21.1) Modeled projections demonstrated prevalence reduction over time, from 1.0% at 10 years to 4.2% at 30 years. PIF and modeled reductions at all time points were higher for Māori and Pacific peoples.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> DISCUSSION</h3>\n \n <p>The projected impact of interventions targetting risk factor reduction increases over a 30-year time horizon and the benefit is potentially higher in ethnic groups with higher risk factor prevalence.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Highlights</h3>\n \n <div>\n <ul>\n \n <li>Achievable risk factor reductions have significant prevention potential.</li>\n \n <li>The projected impact of risk factor interventions increase with time.</li>\n \n <li>We need to consider longer time horizons when assessing proposed interventions.</li>\n </ul>\n </div>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":7471,"journal":{"name":"Alzheimer's & Dementia","volume":"21 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":13.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/alz.70440","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Estimating the impact of risk factor reduction on dementia prevalence in New Zealand\",\"authors\":\"Etuini Ma'u, Naaheed Mukadam, Gill Livingston, Sebastian Walsh, Susanne Röhr, Carol Brayne, Gary Cheung, Sarah Cullum\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/alz.70440\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> INTRODUCTION</h3>\\n \\n <p>We aimed to estimate the prevention potential associated with a reduction in risk factor prevalence and the subsequent impact on dementia prevalence projections over time</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> METHODS</h3>\\n \\n <p>We calculated potential impact fraction (PIF) of a 15% and 25% proportional reduction in risk factor prevalence for 12 modifiable dementia risk factors for New Zealand, and individually for the four main ethnic groups, then modeled this over a 30-year period.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> RESULTS</h3>\\n \\n <p>The PIF for the total NZ population following a 15% risk factor reduction was 14.6% (95% confidence interval: 7.7–21.1) Modeled projections demonstrated prevalence reduction over time, from 1.0% at 10 years to 4.2% at 30 years. PIF and modeled reductions at all time points were higher for Māori and Pacific peoples.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> DISCUSSION</h3>\\n \\n <p>The projected impact of interventions targetting risk factor reduction increases over a 30-year time horizon and the benefit is potentially higher in ethnic groups with higher risk factor prevalence.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Highlights</h3>\\n \\n <div>\\n <ul>\\n \\n <li>Achievable risk factor reductions have significant prevention potential.</li>\\n \\n <li>The projected impact of risk factor interventions increase with time.</li>\\n \\n <li>We need to consider longer time horizons when assessing proposed interventions.</li>\\n </ul>\\n </div>\\n </section>\\n </div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":7471,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Alzheimer's & Dementia\",\"volume\":\"21 7\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":13.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-04\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/alz.70440\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Alzheimer's & Dementia\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/alz.70440\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Alzheimer's & Dementia","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/alz.70440","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

摘要

我们旨在评估与降低风险因素患病率相关的预防潜力，以及随着时间的推移对痴呆患病率预测的后续影响。方法我们计算了新西兰12种可改变的痴呆风险因素的风险因素患病率按比例降低15%和25%的潜在影响分数（PIF）。然后分别针对四个主要民族，在30年的时间里进行建模。结果：风险因素降低15%后，新西兰总人口的PIF为14.6%（95%置信区间：7.7-21.1）。模型预测显示，随着时间的推移，患病率从10年的1.0%下降到30年的4.2%。在所有时间点上，Māori和太平洋地区人口的PIF和模型减少量更高。以减少危险因素为目标的干预措施的预期影响在30年的时间范围内会增加，并且在危险因素患病率较高的种族群体中获益可能更高。强调可实现的风险因素减少具有重大的预防潜力。风险因素干预措施的预期影响随着时间的推移而增加。在评估拟议的干预措施时，我们需要考虑更长的时间范围。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

Estimating the impact of risk factor reduction on dementia prevalence in New Zealand

查看原文本刊更多论文

Estimating the impact of risk factor reduction on dementia prevalence in New Zealand

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to estimate the prevention potential associated with a reduction in risk factor prevalence and the subsequent impact on dementia prevalence projections over time

METHODS

We calculated potential impact fraction (PIF) of a 15% and 25% proportional reduction in risk factor prevalence for 12 modifiable dementia risk factors for New Zealand, and individually for the four main ethnic groups, then modeled this over a 30-year period.

RESULTS

The PIF for the total NZ population following a 15% risk factor reduction was 14.6% (95% confidence interval: 7.7–21.1) Modeled projections demonstrated prevalence reduction over time, from 1.0% at 10 years to 4.2% at 30 years. PIF and modeled reductions at all time points were higher for Māori and Pacific peoples.

DISCUSSION

The projected impact of interventions targetting risk factor reduction increases over a 30-year time horizon and the benefit is potentially higher in ethnic groups with higher risk factor prevalence.

Highlights

Achievable risk factor reductions have significant prevention potential.
The projected impact of risk factor interventions increase with time.
We need to consider longer time horizons when assessing proposed interventions.

求助全文

通过发布文献求助，成功后即可免费获取论文全文。去求助

来源期刊

Alzheimer's & Dementia 医学-临床神经学

CiteScore

14.50

自引率

5.00%

发文量

299

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Alzheimer's & Dementia is a peer-reviewed journal that aims to bridge knowledge gaps in dementia research by covering the entire spectrum, from basic science to clinical trials to social and behavioral investigations. It provides a platform for rapid communication of new findings and ideas, optimal translation of research into practical applications, increasing knowledge across diverse disciplines for early detection, diagnosis, and intervention, and identifying promising new research directions. In July 2008, Alzheimer's & Dementia was accepted for indexing by MEDLINE, recognizing its scientific merit and contribution to Alzheimer's research.