选择性筛选无症状椎体骨折的预测图:越南骨质疏松症研究

IF 2.5 Q3 ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM
Hoa T. Nguyen , Bao T. Nguyen , An V. Tran , Tan T. Nguyen , Long H. Ngo , Tam Vo , Thi H. Nhung Thai , Linh D. Mai , Thach S. Tran , Tuan V. Nguyen , Lan T. Ho-Pham
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的椎体骨折与残疾和死亡率相关,但大多数椎体骨折是无症状的。本研究旨在确定越南成人无症状椎体骨折的发生率,并制定预测图。该队列研究是越南骨质疏松研究的一部分,涉及168名男性和287名女性,年龄在50岁及以上,无临床诊断的椎体骨折。在招募和随后的2年随访中对他们的脊柱进行x光检查。采用Genant's半定量方法确定椎体骨折。我们采用贝叶斯模型平均法寻找预测无症状椎体骨折的最佳模型。还开发了一种预测图,以促进风险预测。结果在中位2.38年的随访期间,13名男性和16名女性发生无症状椎体骨折,总发生率为每1000人年28例骨折,男性为33例,女性为24例。大多数无症状椎体骨折为中度骨折,几乎是轻度骨折的1.5倍。预测无症状椎体骨折发生率的最佳模型包括年龄、男性和股骨颈下段t评分。受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.91,95% CI范围为0.86 ~ 0.96。结论有症状的椎体骨折在越南成年人中较为常见。一个包含性别、年龄和股骨颈t评分的简单模型有助于越南个体无症状椎体骨折的选择性筛查。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A predictive nomogram for selective screening of asymptomatic vertebral fractures: The Vietnam Osteoporosis Study

Objectives

Vertebral fractures are associated with disability and mortality, but most vertebral fractures are asymptomatic. The present study aimed to determine the incidence of and develop a predictive nomogram for asymptomatic vertebral fractures in Vietnamese adults.

Methods

This cohort study as a part of the Vietnam Osteoporosis Study involved 168 men and 287 women aged 50 years and older without a clinically diagnosed vertebral fracture. Their spine x-rays were taken at the recruitment and subsequent 2-year visit. Vertebral fractures were ascertained using the Genant's semi-quantitative method. We employed the Bayesian Model Averaging method to search for the optimal model for predicting asymptomatic vertebral fractures. A predictive nomogram was also developed to facilitate risk prediction.

Results

During a median of 2.38 years of follow-up, 13 men and 16 women developed an asymptomatic vertebral fracture, yielding the overall incidence rate of 28 fractures per 1000 person-years, or 33 fractures/1000 person-years in men and 24 fractures/1000 person-years in women, respectively. Most asymptomatic vertebral fractures were moderate, almost 1.5 times more common than mild fractures. The optimal model for predicting incident asymptomatic vertebral fractures included age, male sex and lower femoral neck T-score. The area under the receiver's operating characteristic curve was 0.91, with 95% CI ranging from 0.86 to 0.96.

Conclusions

Asymptomatic vertebral fractures were relatively common among adults in Vietnam. A simple model with sex, age and femoral neck T-score is helpful for selective screening of asymptomatic vertebral fractures in Vietnamese individuals.
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来源期刊
Osteoporosis and Sarcopenia
Osteoporosis and Sarcopenia Orthopedics, Sports Medicine and Rehabilitation, Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, Obstetrics, Gynecology and Women's Health, Geriatrics and Gerontology
自引率
5.00%
发文量
23
审稿时长
66 days
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