评估全球价格冲击和尼日利亚福利和粮食安全缓解政策

IF 5.6 1区农林科学 Q1 FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Food Security Pub Date : 2024-10-29 DOI:10.1007/s12571-024-01497-2

Pierre Nziengui Mamboundou, Luis Enrique Escalante Ochoa, Oluwasola Emmanuel Omoju

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引用次数: 0

摘要

农产品和能源价格的变化对经济和农业粮食系统产生直接的连锁效应。在本研究中，我们建立了一个动态一般均衡模型来模拟由俄罗斯-乌克兰战争引起的全球价格冲击对尼日利亚福利和粮食安全的影响。此外，我们分析了不同政策选择在短期和长期的有效性，特别是减少间接税和增加对受影响家庭的现金转移支付。结果表明，这些冲击为尼日利亚创造了机会，特别是在贸易、畜牧业和农业部门。这将导致GDP、就业和收入的增加。然而，由于粮食价格上涨对粮食消费和一些粮食安全指标产生负面影响，这些影响会随着时间的推移而消退。此外，对缓解情景的比较分析表明，在缓解对家庭的负面影响方面，有针对性地向家庭提供公共现金转移比减少粮食消费税更有效。

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Assessing global price shocks and mitigation policies on welfare and food security in Nigeria

Variations in agricultural and energy prices have direct and cascading effects on economic and agri-food systems. In this study, we developed a dynamic general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of the global price shocks induced by the Russia-Ukraine war on welfare and food security in Nigeria. In addition, we analysed the effectiveness of different policy options, specifically a reduction in indirect taxes and an increase in cash transfers to affected households, in the short and long term. The results showed that the shocks create opportunities for Nigeria, particularly in the trade, livestock, and agricultural sectors. This leads to an increase in GDP, employment, and incomes. However, these effects fade over time due to the rise in food prices that negatively affects food consumption and some food security indicators. Moreover, the comparative analysis of mitigation scenarios revealed that targeted public cash transfers to households are more effective than reduction in consumption taxes on food in mitigating the negative effects on households.

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来源期刊

Food Security FOOD SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY-

CiteScore

14.00

自引率

6.00%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Food Security is a wide audience, interdisciplinary, international journal dedicated to the procurement, access (economic and physical), and quality of food, in all its dimensions. Scales range from the individual to communities, and to the world food system. We strive to publish high-quality scientific articles, where quality includes, but is not limited to, the quality and clarity of text, and the validity of methods and approaches. Food Security is the initiative of a distinguished international group of scientists from different disciplines who hold a deep concern for the challenge of global food security, together with a vision of the power of shared knowledge as a means of meeting that challenge. To address the challenge of global food security, the journal seeks to address the constraints - physical, biological and socio-economic - which not only limit food production but also the ability of people to access a healthy diet. From this perspective, the journal covers the following areas: Global food needs: the mismatch between population and the ability to provide adequate nutrition Global food potential and global food production Natural constraints to satisfying global food needs: § Climate, climate variability, and climate change § Desertification and flooding § Natural disasters § Soils, soil quality and threats to soils, edaphic and other abiotic constraints to production § Biotic constraints to production, pathogens, pests, and weeds in their effects on sustainable production The sociological contexts of food production, access, quality, and consumption. Nutrition, food quality and food safety. Socio-political factors that impinge on the ability to satisfy global food needs: § Land, agricultural and food policy § International relations and trade § Access to food § Financial policy § Wars and ethnic unrest Research policies and priorities to ensure food security in its various dimensions.