Role of global value chain changes in decoupling CO2 emissions from economic growth in Chinese provinces

Global value chain (GVC) changes have had an impact on economic growth and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in various provinces. This study links the Chinese provincial multiregional input–output table to the world input–output table. The provinces are divided into carbon peak and nonpeak groups to explore the impact of GVC changes in relation to driving factors of provincial decoupling. The results are fourfold. (1) For peaking provinces, after reaching the peak, the GVC and domestic effects combined to promote strong decoupling. (2) Most nonpeak provinces are weakly decoupling. The hindering effects on decoupling decreased after the 2008 financial crisis. (3) For peaking provinces, the positive effect of emissions intensity has been sufficient to offset the negative effect from the final demand, but was not sufficient to offset nonpeak provinces. (4) The hindering effect of GVC production-related factors has lowered. This study proposes that nonpeak provinces improve production technology.